Lyon misses chance to join leaders

Soccer Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Lyon, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lyon missed out on a chance to join Bordeaux and Montpellier at the top of the Ligue 1 table on Saturday as they were held to a 1-1 draw by St Etienne.

With the top two teams in the league both having drawn their respective games earlier in the day, Lyon took the pitch knowing that three points would be enough to see them climb to the top.

However, a 38th-minute goal from Emmanuel Riviere put Lyon behind and they weren't able to recover until 10 minutes from time, when Lisandro Lopez pulled the home side level.

Gonzalo Bergessio set up the opening goal with a cross that was met by a diving header from Riviere, who put the ball well out of the reach of Lyon goalkeeper Hugo Lloris.

St Etienne netminder Jeremie Janot needed to be on top of his game in the second half as Lyon heaped on the pressure but was only able to beat the keeper once as Lopez nodded home the equalizer to keep his team within two points of the top spot.

Bordeaux's struggles in the league continued as they were held to a 0-0 draw at Monaco, stretching their winless streak to three games.

The club still sits on top of the table on goal difference, and they have a game in hand after top-three sides Montpellier and Auxerre played to a 1-1 draw.

Auxerre entered the game having won its last four matches and they went ahead just before the break with a goal from Dennis Oliech. However, Alberto Costa's goal in the 66th minute was enough for Montpellier to claim a share of the points and keep them one point above their opponents.

PSG got a big 4-1 win over Sochaux as Mevlut Erding scored a hat trick, Lorient downed Lens, 1-0, with the lone goal coming from Sylvain Marchal in the 79th minute, Nice beat Le Mans, 1-0 and Boulogne recorded a 3-1 win at Nancy.

Wwwlapplemusic Soccer Betting News

<< Gilardino's brace carries Fiorentina past Napoli
Naples, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of second-half goals from Alberto Gilardino handed Fiorentina a 3-1 win over Napoli at the Stadio San Paolo on Saturday. Ezequiel Lavezzi broke a scoreless deadlock early in the second half t

<< Bengals sign S Williams
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals and safety Roy Williams have reportedly agreed to a one-year deal on Saturday. The Cincinnati Enquirer is reporting that the eight-year veteran will be coming back with t

<< Turner, Buckeyes drop Illini in 2-OT to reach Big Ten final
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Evan Turner continues to steal the show in Big Ten Tournament, scoring 11 of his game-high 31 points in a pair of overtime sessions to lead No. 5 Ohio State to an exciting, 88-81, victory over Illinoi

<< Bears capture second straight MEAC title
Winston-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Thompson paced the Bears with 18 points and 12 rebounds, and Morgan State captured its second straight Mid- Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament title with a 68-61 win over South Carolin

<< Texas A&M deals Nebraska first loss in Big 12 semis
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danielle Adams poured in 22 points and grabbed nine rebounds, as 11th-ranked Texas A&M spoiled third-ranked Nebraska's bid for a perfect season with an 80-70 victory in the semifinals of the

MRI on Gerald Wallace's ankle comes back negative >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An MRI on Charlotte Bobcats forward Gerald Wallace's left ankle came back negative on Saturday. The results showed Wallace does not have any fractures or ligament damage, but rather a left ankle and mid-fo

Weight done for season >>
Uniondale, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Islander captain Doug Weight will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury that will require surgery. The 39-year-old tore the rotator cuff and labrum in his left shoulder

Mississippi State downs Vandy, heads back to SEC final >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Stewart had 14 points and eight rebounds to help Mississippi State upend No. 20 Vanderbilt, 62-52, for a return trip to the SEC Tournament title game. Jarvis Varnado was his usual domina

Mallorca stumbles at Getafe >>
Getafe, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mallorca's troubles away from home continued on Saturday as the club suffered a 3-0 defeat at Getafe. Mallorca entered the weekend in fourth place, level on points with Sevilla and only four behind third-p

Odysseus rallies to win Tampa Bay Derby >>
Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odysseus, ridden by Rajiv Maragh, rallied down the stretch to win Saturday's $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. In recent years, the event has become an important prep for the Triple Crown r

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.